Author: Christopher K. Merker, Ph.D., CFA

Last month, we heard yet again about the need to stop global warming at about 1.5 degrees centigrade above pre-industrial levels. The International Energy Agency outlined a plan to meet that goal, and the United Nations secretary-general implored nations to get serious about cutting emissions to make it a reality.

That goal is a fantasy. This summer, global warming already yielded monthly average temperatures that exceeded pre-industrial averages by 1.5 degrees. It took more than a century for global annual average temperatures to reach the first degree, which happened around 2015. Climate data suggest that the next half-degree is likely to happen by the early 2030s, if not sooner, and that 2023 will be the warmest year on record.

Adaptation means lessening the harm caused by storm surges, floods, heat waves, fires and other weather-related perils. It requires new infrastructure, early warning systems and better awareness of how changes in the climate will harm things we value. The best adaptation strategies go further to pursue resilience—the ability to bounce back from destructive changes.

https://phys.org/news/2023-10-opinion-climate-isnt-emissions-huge.html

These northern U.S. communities may not be completely immune to a warming world, but they are well-placed to meet the needs of an influx of climate migrants.

https://apple.news/AemVPUF0xRhKxjHAAoLLufQ

This year’s record-setting ocean temperatures are the result of decades of climate warming and an El Niño pattern that is releasing heat from the Pacific into the atmosphere and affecting ocean temperatures globally, according to Michael McPhaden, senior scientist at NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle. 

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/climate-environment/hurricane-idalia-why-climate-change-17ef3607?reflink=integratedwebview_share

U.S. power producers increased output of electricity from natural gas by more than from clean power sources in the opening eight months of 2023, as electricity firms grappled with low wind speeds and heavy demand from power-hungry air conditioners.

Total power generation across the lower 48 states through Aug. 20, 2023 declined by 2.1% from the same period in 2022, data compiled by Refinitiv shows.

But generation from natural gas climbed by over 10%, widening gas’ lead as the country’s main source of electricity.

The share of power generated from gas averaged 40.4% through mid-August, up from under 36% in the same period in 2022.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-power-system-gets-gasier-not-much-cleaner-2023-2023-08-23/

Take always:

1) Global Warming should be more aptly renamed Global Climate Disruption

2) This year’s heat is a 4 standard deviation event; “a giant non-linear outcome generator with wicked convexities”

3) “A ‘shock of the old’ is that we still live in the machine age of Victorians.”

4) “We need enough mitigation to avoid the unmanageable and enough adaptation to manage the unavoidable.”

Global Boiling

Marine scientists say record ocean temperatures have sparked widespread coral bleaching in the Florida Keys. The extreme heat and bleaching have been deadly — killing all coral on one popular reef.

https://www.npr.org/2023/07/28/1190824456/scientists-fight-to-help-protect-the-florida-coral-thats-dying-from-heat#:~:text=Abnormally%20hot%20ocean%20temperatures%20in,%2C%20they%27re%20gone%20forever.

https://pbswisconsin.org/watch/nova/weathering-future-preview-txzvwi/

As extreme weather in the U.S. impacts more people – with longer heat waves, more intense rainstorms, megafires, and droughts – discover how Americans are fighting back by marshaling ancient wisdom and innovating new solutions.