Impact of Carbon Market Developments in 2025

A couple of interesting articles out this month on carbon market development:

First from MSCI “Frozen Carbon Credit Market May Thaw as 2030 Gets Closer”

https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/frozen-carbon-credit-market-may/05232727859

Key findings

  • The size of the global carbon credit market remained on ice last year, at around USD 1.4 billion. Credit demand (i.e., “retirements”) was pretty much flat on 2023 while average spot prices fell 20%.
  • However, there are some signs of a coming thaw, including the continuing rise in the number of companies setting ambitious climate commitments and a number of positive policy and market developments.
  • As a result, the market could rise significantly in the coming years, creating potential new investment opportunities. Our projections suggest it could be worth USD 7 to 35 billion by 2030 and USD 45 to 250 billion by 2050.

https://www.cif.org/news/ccmm-issuance

CIF CAPITAL MARKETS MECHANISM (CCMM) MAKES HISTORIC DEBUT WITH INAUGURAL $500 MILLION BOND

The Climate Investment Funds (CIF) Capital Markets Mechanism (CCMM), rated by Fitch and Moody’s (AA+/Aa1) today made its market debut as an innovative issuer focused on mobilizing finance for climate action and sustainable development. Its inaugural bond raised $500 million on the back of an orderbook totaling more than $3 billion from investors around the world. The 3-year bond is the first issuance under CCMM’s borrowing program, following the announcement of its listing in November 2024 at COP29.

Author: Christopher K. Merker, Ph.D., CFA

Christopher K. Merker, PhD, CFA, is a director with Private Asset Management at Robert W. Baird & Co. He holds a PhD in investment governance and fiduciary effectiveness from Marquette University, where he has taught the course “Sustainable Finance” since 2009. Executive director of Fund Governance Analytics (FGA), an ESG research partnership with Marquette University, he is a member of the CFA Institute ESG Working Group, an international committee currently exploring ESG standards, publishes the blog, Sustainable Finance, which covers current topics around governance and sustainability in investing, and is co-author of the book, The Trustee Governance Guide: The Five Imperatives of 21st Century Investing.